August 5, 2022: Global News Roundup
Tensions soar in Asia-Pacific as US tests Chinese resolve on Taiwan
The Global News Roundup collects news stories from entirely international (non-US) media sources on variety of pressing global political and economic issues and events.
US Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) flew to Taiwan earlier this week, met with Taiwanese leadership, and pledged US support for Taiwanese democracy, the first such visit to Taiwan by a US official in twenty-five years and a departure from the previous US policy stance. The response from the mainland, which claims Taiwan as part of China, has been swift, decisive, and unyielding.
On August 2, as it became clearer that Pelosi was indeed going to make the trip to Taiwan, China dispatched two aircraft carriers and an amphibious assault ship from their home ports, and noted its clear intention to “speed up” the “reunification process”. “So this time, China will teach the US a lesson again, as it will use US mistakes to comprehensively change the Taiwan Straits situation, just as it did in Hong Kong in recent years," said an anonymous Beijing-based senior expert quoted by the Global Times.
On August 3, the Government of China also summoned the US Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, “to protest against Pelosi's visit to Taiwan island”. “The nature of Pelosi's visit is extremely vicious and the consequence is very grave. The Chinese side will not sit idly by”, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng told Burns. The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement on the matter noted that “China will definitely take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to the US Speaker's visit.”
The same day, Wednesday, China “launched massive military drills around the island of Taiwan, including a long-range live fire drill in the Taiwan Straits and a live fire conventional missile drill to the east of the island”. “The PLA will also conduct a series of live fire military drills from August 4 to 7 in six different areas that encircle the island of Taiwan from all directions.” By the end of the day on Wednesday, China was pledging that its military encirclement of Taiwan would become a more permanent blockade. The map of Chinese positions around Taiwan below comes from the CCP-controlled Global Times and can be viewed in the original here.
The Chinese Government further began cracking down on individuals and organizations supportive of Taiwanese independence (promising that they “will be punished”), and initiated what is shaping up to be a shrewd spin campaign to undermine support for US foreign policy: "Looking at Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan, look at the 'beautiful sight to behold' that Pelosi once said she would stand with, and the secessionists in China's Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. What happened to them now?" Hua Chunying, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said at a press conference Thursday.
In Taiwan, authorities sought to reassure an increasingly scared and anxious public, calling PLA military drills “irrational acts”. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Sun Li-fang stated in a briefing Wednesday that the military will "resolutely defend national sovereignty, has absolute ability and confidence, shoulders the responsibility of guarding the territory, and will counter any actions that violate national sovereignty."
Whether or not Taiwan can expect additional US assistance in fending off Chinese aggression is an open question, as is the question of whether the US could effectively do so even if it wanted to. Writing in the Asia Times back in May, analysts argued that “Washington now faces a serious dilemma. It is concerned that strategic ambiguity may no longer be sufficient to deter China from invading Taiwan, particularly in the face of China’s increasingly assertive talk of “resolving” the Taiwan issue through reunification… But this would require more concrete steps to demonstrate it could effectively defend Taiwan – and China’s military buildup has made this much more problematic than it was 30 years ago.”
For now, the extent of international support for Taiwan and the US is uncertain, as governments weigh their alliance with the US against the costs of allying against or otherwise alienating China. Consistent with past policy, Japan signaled its strong support for Taiwan and the US in a joint statement by ministers from the G7 countries (the G7 includes the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan), and was met immediately with a response from China, which cancelled its upcoming meeting with Japanese officials that had been scheduled to occur during the ASEAN meetings that began Thursday (ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Mirroring China’s admonitions of the US, the G7 stated, “There is no justification to use a visit as pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait… The PRC’s escalatory response risks increasing tensions and destabilizing the region.”
For its part, South Korea, where Pelosi stopped after leaving Taiwan on Wednesday, took a more cautious approach. A senior official, who asked to remain anonymous, told The Korea Herald: “Our position is that we will continue close communications over pending issues with the concerned countries in the region under the banner of maintaining regional peace and stability through dialogue and cooperation.” Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol also declined to meet personally with Pelosi, drawing the ire of some observers: “Critics have accused Yoon of avoiding Pelosi to avoid antagonizing China, South Korea’s biggest trading partner.” Other countries in the region, such as the Philippines, are taking a similarly cautious stance for similar reasons, urging all parties to practice restraint (See also: Indonesia, Vietnam). The Taiwan issue is expected to be a topic of discussion at the ASEAN meetings that continue through this weekend.
Last, and unsurprisingly, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea have reiterated China’s critiques of the US and their support for China’s “one China” policy toward Taiwan.
Things I’m keeping an eye on:
1. Chinese military maneuvers and responses from Taiwan, US, other countries in the region.
2. The alliances/blocs shaping up around the China-Taiwan-US dispute, especially in relation to the alliances that have formed around the Ukraine-Russia war. These competing blocs are growing more solid by the day, with huge consequences for global geopolitics, trade, and finance. (I’m watching for the ASEAN meeting outcomes in this context, too, especially as reports are coming through now of the Chinese Foreign Minister walking out of the ASEAN gala dinner. See here.)
3. The impact (if any) of China’s blockade of Taiwan on global trade and supply chains, including semiconductors and electronics. If military hostilities continue to escalate, I expect China would also move to leverage US dependence on Chinese imports, as well as dependence of many smaller economies in the region on exports to China, for strategic gain. Among many other critical goods, China is a major source for US pharmaceuticals (including antibiotics), telecommunications equipment, and lithium. China is also one of the largest foreign holders of US dollars and financial assets. And, the South China Sea carries about one third of global shipping.
4. How the possible opening of a new military engagement in the Asia-Pacific region impacts US strategy in Europe and the Middle East. (Did you see that the US agreed to sell missile defense systems to Saudi Arabia and the UAE this week? And that the US Senate approved NATO membership for Finland and Sweden, even as NATO coordinated more arms deliveries for Ukraine?)