July 26, 2024: Global News Roundup

Not with a bang but a whimper—International perspectives on Biden, Trump, and American presidential politics

The Global News Roundup collects news stories from entirely international (non-US) media sources on variety of pressing global issues and events.

Good Morning,

Since I posted late last month, growing concerns about the age and health of US President Biden captured global headlines, the opposition candidate for president in the November 2024 elections, former president Donald Trump, survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, and President Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race via a letter posted to X (Twitter) this past weekend. Biden and other party leaders subsequently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for the US presidency.

A major benefit of reading international news is the very different opinions and perspectives you get on your own country when you see it through the eyes and experiences of people who live elsewhere. The general impression I got from the world news I sampled—there was far too much coverage to read it all—was sobering, to say the least, with most observers picturing American political institutions and leadership as unstable, incompetent, chaotic, and in a state of serious decline.

To start, I was surprised by the severity of the criticism I saw coming from outlets that have in recent years been more prone to cheerlead American leaders than holding them accountable. For example, the July 6 edition of The Economist ran the brutal cover photo below alongside a large-font title that read “No way to run a country”.

(Image: “No way to run a country”, cover photo from The Economist, 07/06/2024, here).

One of the lead articles, entitled “Why Biden must withdraw”, read as follows, referring to the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump held on June 27:

The presidential debate was awful for Joe Biden, but the cover-up has been worse. It was agony to watch a befuddled old man struggling to recall words and facts. His inability to land an argument against a weak opponent was dispiriting. But the operation by his campaign to deny what tens of millions of Americans saw with their own eyes is more toxic than either, because its dishonesty provokes contempt.

This week’s edition (July 23) introduces a new weekly “caption competition” for readers, who are challenged to provide the winning caption for the following illustration:

(Image: Joe Biden waving from inside a hole, part of The Economist’s “caption competition” for the July 23 edition, here).

An op-ed this week in The Guardian likened Biden’s life to a “Shakespearean tragedy”, arguing that American actor George Clooney should play him on film. Whether the framing of Biden’s life as an unwritten Hollywood tragedy was intended as friendly puffery or as political satire is an open question: “He stubbornly resists and takes umbrage at the chorus of criticism at his obvious aging, his halting and slow gait from a broken foot early in his presidency he didn’t properly treat and his sometimes broken sentences. In his mind, he’s saving the country.”

Moving on, Chinese state media cited recent polling data that showed “widespread skepticism among US voters over the advanced ages of both Biden and Donald Trump” and further noted, with more than a little gleeful editorial flare, that “Experts say the problem partly reflects frustration with the US' rigid and decadent gerontocracy.”

Following the July 13 assassination attempt against Donald Trump, the Global Times published this cartoon:

(Image: “Democracy in danger. Illustration: Chen Xia /GT”, from the Global Times, 07/15/2024, here.)

Similar critiques and concerns about US political stability and political violence were expressed by an array of world leaders, many of whom, like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have historically been on the receiving end of harsh election-related criticisms. Erdogan, one of few leaders who spoke with Trump personally in the wake of the attack at the rally (along with UK’s Keir Starmer and Canada’s Justin Trudeau), noted on July 14, “I believe that the investigation into the attack will be carried out in the most effective manner and the perpetrators and their instigators will be brought to justice as soon as possible in order not to overshadow the US elections and global stability."

Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated that “The attack against former President Donald Trump must be vehemently repudiated by all defenders of democracy and dialogue in politics. What we saw today is unacceptable." His political opponent and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro wished Trump a “speedy recovery” on X/Twitter and said, “See you at the inauguration.”

An op-ed in the Buenos Aires Times placed US presidential politics and Trump’s recent successes in broader context, linking current political instability to deeper social problems, including income inequality and “class conflict”:

The US is riven by class conflict, with those who like the way the economy, and with it, society, have developed of late, confronting the growing number who know they are getting left behind and, naturally enough, resent it. Trump was among the first who not merely took note of what was happening but also understood that it could provide a canny politician with all he would need to set about building a movement big enough to put him in the White House.

The real-estate magnate and television personality who swaggered onto the political stage just over nine years ago was greatly helped by the refusal of the Democrats to see what was staring them in the face…

Following Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race this past weekend, international media took to speculating on who might replace him as the Democratic party candidate. The Hindu gently mocked Biden, picturing him crying on the sidelines as Kamala Harris rides a red, white and blue donkey into the sunset:

(Image: “On the draw—July 22, 2024” by Vasini Varadan, from The Hindu, 7/22/2024, here.)

By contrast, India’s Economic Times argued that Harris’ nomination is uncertain despite endorsements from high-profile Democrats like Biden, and that former first lady Michelle Obama may ultimately be a preferable candidate. Speaking to Harris’ chances in the 2024 race, the article noted that, “For many voters, she is seen as part of the old guard. She is a part of the Biden administration, serving as the Vice-President. The voters who demanded Biden’s ouster may not support someone from the same team. Many of the donors too may want a new candidate who has a chance of defeating Trump to take on the role.”

Similar to articles I read from the CPC-controlled Global Times, Russian state media was keen to capitalize on US political instability, stirring the pot a bit with an inflammatory write-up entitled “Trump sees Biden’s election exit as Democratic coup”. An article from TASS quoted a Fox News interview with Trump and his vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance as follows:

And if they want to take him down because he’s mentally incapable of serving, invoke the 25th Amendment. You don’t get to sort of do this in the most politically beneficial way for Democrats. If it’s an actual problem, they should take care of it the appropriate way," James David Vance said on the matter.

Trump also revealed that he had a "nice" phone conversation with Biden after the assassination attempt. According to Trump, Biden said that he was lucky he turned his head.

Taking a somewhat longer and less sensationalized view of his withdrawal from the race, Al Jazeera explained that Americans were growing tired of Biden’s handling of the economy before recent concerns about “age and fitness” arose: “In May, weeks before a disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump cemented perceptions of Biden’s decline, just 23 percent of Americans surveyed by the Pew Research Center viewed the economy as “excellent or good”. Much bigger shares of Americans – 41 percent and 36 percent, respectively – rated the economy as “only fair” or “poor”. Much of the dissatisfaction came from Biden’s own voter base…”.

France’s Le Monde further discussed the potential impacts of an ailing, “lame-duck” American president on the US government budget and debt ceiling (recall that US sovereign debt was downgraded by Fitch last year owing in part to regular episodes of fiscal brinkmanship): “The reality is more uncertain. Congress – where all representatives of the House of Representatives and a third of senators will be up for re-election on election day, November 5 – will gradually halt its work. The vote on a budget for fiscal year 2025, due to start on October 1, will be postponed until after the election and probably until after the adoption of provisional funding, a stopgap measure to avoid a federal government shutdown, given the endemic inability of lawmakers to reach a compromise.”

Turning to foreign policy, an op-ed this week in the Tehran Times spoke to Biden’s “dark legacy”, citing support for Israel in the ongoing war in Palestine and the Biden Administration’s moves to block United Nations efforts to secure a ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Jerusalem Post lamented the consequences of Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race and his lame-duck status for Israel-Palestine politics, including for a future hostage deal: “US President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 race for the White House could not have come at a worse moment for Israel concerning a hostage deal and Iran’s military threat against the Jewish state.” The article continued on to note that the “Israeli Right” might “feel that it dodged a bullet, given its fear that Biden would have pressured Prime Minister Netanyahu into a Saudi deal that would have included a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank”.

In a different warzone, Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed his gratitude this week to President Biden for his support for Ukraine. According to the Kyiv Independent,

President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed respect for U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the presidential race, thanking him for his unwavering support of Ukraine's fight for freedom.

“We will always be thankful for President Biden's leadership. He supported our country during the most dramatic moment in history, assisted us in preventing Putin from occupying our country, and has continued to support us throughout this terrible war,” Zelensky wrote on X.

He stated that President Biden's decisions will be remembered as “bold actions taken in response to challenging times.

The South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday that the possibility of a Trump victory in November was creating an environment of uncertainty around the future course of the Ukraine war:

The prospect of victory for former president Donald Trump, the Republican contender, has long concerned Kyiv, which fears he would choke off support and force Ukraine to sue for peace on terms that favour Russia.

But while the Democrats hope Biden’s decision to drop out and endorse Vice-President Kamala Harris will inject energy into their campaign, it is unclear whether it makes Trump’s defeat more likely. Officials in Moscow, widely thought to favour Trump, were non-committal.

Last, an opinion piece published this week in the Middle East Eye about the international significance of Biden’s withdrawal this week likened the current moment to the last years of the British Empire:  

In the long shadow of the First World War, one of the greatest titles for an epochal work - Parade’s End, by Ford Madox Ford - definitively marked the final acts of the British empire, that hung on for decades until coming to total demise in, of all places, Yemen.

In the same period, TS Eliot, the transplanted American, put it a little differently: “This is the way the world ends / not with a bang but a whimper”…

The political culture that Biden has embodied through a lifetime mostly spent between Washington, DC and a beach house in Delaware (where he spent a good part of his presidency, perhaps even a majority of it), truly represents the success, at almost every level, of American society’s ability to never even see or be aware of the effects of its position in the world and the effects its core policies have had, and continue to have, on billions of people around the world.

In loosely related presidential news, former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad survived an assassination attempt this week, former US president Trump accused Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele of “sending their murderers to the United States of America”, and former Pakistani prime minister Imran Kahn stated his intention to apply from prison to become the new chancellor of Oxford University (he is currently serving a 10-year sentence).

Things I’m keeping an eye on:

1.     China and Palestine: With US politics capturing the world’s attention in recent weeks, China seized the opportunity to make serious diplomatic headway in Palestine. The BBC reported that “Rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah have signed a declaration agreeing to form an interim "national reconciliation government" for the occupied West Bank and Gaza after the war with Israel, in a meeting brokered by China, China's foreign minister and Hamas officials have said. Representatives from the groups, along with 12 other Palestinian factions, pledged to work for unity after three days of talks in Beijing.”

2.     Asset seizures: Last week, the European Parliament “approved a European Union initiative aimed at utilizing the revenues generated from Russia's frozen sovereign assets to provide military support to Ukraine. This decision marks a significant step forward in the European Union's strategy to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities amidst ongoing conflict with Russia” (see also my write up from May on this issue, in which I discuss the consequences of this move for the dollar, euro, and Western financial markets in general).

3.     The Magnificent Seven: It’s been a bad week for Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Nvidia, seven mega-corporations that together represent almost 1/3 of the S&P 500 index. As I’ve noted before, this kind of concentration makes markets vulnerable and contributes to financial fragility. If you’re interested, I did an interview with CBS Colorado last Friday about the CrowdStrike/Microsoft outages this past weekend, in which I discuss the related issue of market concentration and supply chain vulnerability.

4. The Olympic Games begin today in France!