May 12, 2023: Global News Roundup
Rising powers defy the US with diplomacy in Syria and Ukraine
This was a big week for international diplomacy, with diplomatic successes in the Middle East and Eastern Europe demonstrating how rising powers—including Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Turkey, and Brazil—are increasingly using negotiation, mediation, collaboration, and compromise to reach their own national and regional goals and challenge US power and interests abroad. Let’s dive right in.
Starting in the Middle East, Syria was readmitted to the Arab League this week, following an 11-year suspension. “Syria’s Arab League membership was revoked after President Bashar al-Assad ordered a crackdown on protesters in March 2011 that spiraled the country into a civil war that has since killed nearly half a million people and displaced another 23 million,” reported Al Jazeera. President al-Assad’s recent success in consolidating power and territory have led other Middle Eastern governments to work to restore and normalize relations with Syria. The League of Arab States is a multilateral organization formed in 1945 and includes as members Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Tunisia, Morocco, Kuwait, Algeria, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Mauritania, Somalia, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), Djibouti, and Comoros. The League “aims to be a regional organization of Arab states with a focus to developing the economy, resolving disputes and coordinating political aims.” An op-ed published Monday in the Times of Israel argued that “The Arab League’s decision to reinstate Syria is a significant step towards peace in the Middle East.”
Al Jazeera this week detailed the international response to Syria’s admission to the Arab League. The UAE was firmly in support, while Qatar accepted the reinstatement but indicated that more work had to be done on a political/diplomatic solution to the civil conflict before relations Syria could be fully normalized. “The reinstatement of Syria does not mean normalisation of relations between Arab countries and Syria,” Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit told reporters in Cairo, “This is a sovereign decision for each country to make.” Russia, a long-time ally of al-Assad, was supportive of the move.
Unsurprisingly, the US firmly opposed the readmission. US State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel stated, “We do not believe that Syria merits readmission to the Arab League at this time, and it’s a point that we’ve made clear with all of our partners.” The US extended sanctions against Syria for another year, and a bipartisan group of US lawmakers further introduced a bill on Thursday that aims to prevent normalization of ties with Syria. According to Reuters, “The bill, seen by Reuters, would prohibit the U.S. federal government from recognizing or normalizing relations with any government in Syria led by Assad, who is under U.S. sanctions, and expands on the Caesar Act, a U.S. law that imposed a tough round of sanctions on Syria in 2020.” (See here and here for info on US sanctions against Syria and the ongoing humanitarian crisis.) Even further, the US intends the legislation to be “a warning to Turkey and Arab countries that if they engage with Assad's government, they could face severe consequences”, said a staffer said speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity. The staffer also noted that the Arab League’s decision on Syria had “infuriated” members of the US Congress.
For its part, Iran—which provided extensive military and economic support to al-Assad’s regime for the duration of the war against US-supported rebel forces— last week proclaimed the “victory of the Resistance Front in Syria”. A few days later, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi made a visit to Damascus to meet with al-Assad, the first such visit since 2011 and a demonstration of Iran’s recent push for “regional diplomacy”. “Syria's government and people have gone through great difficulties, and today we can say that you have overcome all these problems and achieved victory despite the threats and sanctions imposed on you," Raisi told Assad according to a statement from the Syrian presidency and Iran's IRNA news agency, as reported by the New Arab.
(Image: Syria's President Bashar al-Assad (right) stands with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) in Damascus, Syria, in this handout released by SANA on May 3, 2023. SANA/Handout via REUTERS, here).
On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia, which had (with Qatar and the US) previously supported the anti-Assad rebels, announced the restoration of diplomatic ties with Syria. The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that the move was made “in the interest of contributing to the development of joint Arab action and strengthening security and stability in the region.” Also on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a deal to reopen embassies and consulates, following a deal earlier this year brokered by China to normalize diplomatic relations. On Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu travelled to Moscow to engage in 4-party talks with representatives from Iran, Syria, and Russia. The Daily Sabah reported on Russia’s role in facilitating an agreement between Turkey and Syria: “Russia's long-standing effort to open a channel of dialogue between Türkiye and the Bashar Assad regime paid off last year, as the defense ministers and intelligence chiefs of Türkiye, Russia and the Bashar Assad regime met in Moscow on Dec. 28…[Turkish President] Erdoğan has pledged to speed up the repatriation of nearly four million Syrian refugees and migrants who fled to Türkiye to escape poverty and war. An agreement with Damascus is seen as a prerequisite for this process.” And on Thursday, Iran’s finance minister visited Saudi Arabia, the first such official visit since the March deal to resume ties.
Turning to Eastern Europe, the week was full of mixed reporting on the proposed Chinese peace plan which generally proposes negotiations to find a political settlement to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Referring to Chinese president Xi’s recent call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, the EU’s ambassador to China praised the call, and urged “greater efforts to achieve peace”. "We would like China to go further and help more to reach a just peace, which involves withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine," Ambassador Jorge Toledo Albinana told a press conference in the Chinese capital according to Reuters.
Chinese foreign minister Qi Gang visited Europe this week, partly to try and hustle up support for the peace plan, calling for greater communication and collaboration to “tackle global challenges”. “China has always seen Europe as a comprehensive strategic partner and has always shown clear support for Europe’s efforts to strengthen strategic autonomy and its active role on the international stage…China-EU relations should neither target, be attached to, nor be limited by a third party,” Qin said, according to the South China Morning Post. Note the language of “strategic autonomy”, the phrase China tends to use these days to encourage Europe to be more independent from the US foreign policy agenda (i.e., the “third party” Qin mentioned in his comments).
While EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and UN chief Antonio Guterres both expressed skepticism about the viability of China’s plan earlier in the week, the fact that leaders and officials are publicly discussing the possibility, no matter how remote it may be, is a significant development. Indeed, Thursday brought news that Brazilian President Lula, who previously offered to mediate peace talks, meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss the war. “Lula has called for a ceasefire and proposed a club of nations including Brazil to mediate peace,” reported the MEHR News Agency. Also on Thursday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced he is planning to meet with US President Biden to encourage him to “listen” to China and Brazil regarding the war in Ukraine, and to “propose that greater weight be given to the opinions non-NATO members that are also impacted by the war”. Perhaps demonstrating a gradual shift in Europe’s position on the war, Reuters noted that “Madrid agrees with Washington on the illegality of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the need to arm Kyiv's forces. But it is positioning itself as an intermediary because of its close ties to Latin American countries and more conciliatory relations with Beijing.”
(Image: U.S. President Joe Biden (left) talks with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (right) prior to the start of a mangrove planting event at Ngurah Rai Forest Park, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia November 16, 2022. Dita Alangkara/Pool via REUTERS, here).
In related news, ceasefire negotiations are ongoing in Sudan now, hopefully permitting much needed humanitarian aid to reach residents once a truce is in place. The talks between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began this past Saturday. US Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland briefed senators on Wednesday and told them she is “cautiously optimistic”. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida toured Africa last week in advance of the G7 summit in Hiroshima that begins May 19. High on his agenda is the Ukraine war, as well as counterbalancing Russian and Chinese influence in the region. “African countries appear to be divided over the war; among half of all abstentions at the UN general assembly resolution in February that condemned Russia and supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity were from African countries”, reported the SCMP. Chinese officials this week declined to meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, in part because the Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu has been sanctioned by the US since 2018. And, Ya Ya, a 22-year-old female panda, returned home to China last week from the Memphis Zoo in the US, with some Chinese citizens accusing the zoo of mistreating Ya Ya and calling for “an end to this absurd panda diplomacy”.
Things I’m keeping an eye on:
1. Crisis in Pakistan: Civil unrest erupted in Pakistan this week following Tuesday’s arrest of former Prime Minster Imran Khan on corruption charges, charges that he has denied. There have been “violent confrontations” between Khan’s supporters, who are protesting the arrest, and security forces. The military has been called in to quash the protests. Late Thursday, Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that the arrest was invalid, bringing Khan under the Court’s protection while the process begins again.
2. US efforts to challenge the BRICS and OPEC+: On Wednesday, the US House Judiciary Committee was slated to discuss a bill designed to limit the ability of the OPEC oil producers to make production cuts, the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartel bill, or NOPEC. The bill “would change U.S. antitrust law to revoke the sovereign immunity that has protected OPEC+ members and their national oil companies from lawsuits over price collusion.” A similar bill was introduced in the US Senate this past March. OPEC+ members include Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran. Then, on Thursday, the US accused South Africa of supplying weapons to Russia to use in Ukraine. South Africa has consistently maintained it’s neutrality in the Ukraine war, and “South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa said his government was looking into the claims.”
3. The US economy: To paraphrase recent comments by billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, tracking the US economy these days is like watching a slow-moving horror movie. The situation for PacWest got worse this week after the lender revealed even more depositor withdrawals; share prices are down 70% in 2023 so far. Debt ceiling negotiations have yet to make headway, and credit default swap (CDS) prices reached an all-time high this week (CDSs provide a kind of insurance against default, in this case default on US government debt). Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the US may run out of funds needed to make some payments as soon as June 1. Meanwhile, energy and housing price inflation continued to pummel US households. Referring to data released this week, Reuters noted that “inflation remains too strong, with the report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showing monthly consumer prices rising solidly because of sticky rents as well as rebounds in the costs of gasoline and used motor vehicles. The mixed report dashed financial market hopes that the Fed would start cutting rates this year to shore up the economy.”