September 15, 2023: Global News Roundup
The politics of non-alignment—India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE “thread the needle” as military-economic blocs solidify
The Global News Roundup collects news stories from entirely international (non-US) media sources on variety of pressing global issues and events.
Back in February, I wrote about the military-economic blocs emerging as the US-led international order transitions into a non-hegemonic, multipolar system in which multiple, more evenly matched states vie for power, territory, and resources. At that time, I quoted a report by a former German official, which argued as follows:
“The geopolitical distribution of power will see a fundamental shift. Traditional political alignments will harden. The world will remain divided into three groups that face each other with suspicion and open hostility:
-Western liberal democracies (U.S., Canada, EU, UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand)
-Russia, Belarus, Iran, Syria, Venezuela and North Korea, with China staying close. Regimes in these countries despise legal constraints both in dealing with other international actors or with their own subjects
-Developing nations of the South Asian subcontinent, the Arab world, and South America
International institutions like the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are paralyzed; regional associations will gather strength… The main beneficiaries of Russia’s war are China, India, Turkey, Iran and North Korea. They exploit trade opportunities that Western sanctions open for them. They profit from Russian oil at discount prices.”
As was the case back in February, the details of these blocs are not altogether clear today and (informal) membership is to some extent still in flux. That said, news this week suggests the blocs are solidifying quickly, roughly along the same lines outlined above, with two big exceptions:
a. China is not “staying close”. China leads a military-economic bloc that, at least for now, includes Russia, North Korea, and Iran, among others. At this point in time, and with the caveat that international alliances can sometimes be fickle and short-lived, it just seems silly to pretend that China and Russia are not currently allies and close collaborators given substantial (and growing) military and economic cooperation between them. China buys lots of sanctioned Russian oil and natural gas, they are working together on de-dollarization in the BRICS organization and the SCO, they recently conducted joint military exercises off the coast of Alaska, Presidents Xi calls President Putin his “best friend”, and so on.
b. The supposed “paralysis” of non-aligned countries in South Asia, the Arab world, and South America is not supported all that well by the evidence. My own read is that the non-aligned countries, from India and Brazil to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey, are not paralyzed at all. Rather, they appear flexible, strategic, and opportunistic, seeking collaborations and doing business with members of both of the other blocs, as their national interests dictate and geopolitical dynamics permit.
(As an aside, I also disagree with report’s characterization of the US-led bloc as comprised of “liberal democracies”, but addressing this would require its own article, so I’m just saying it here briefly for the record).
Turning to the news, Russian and North Korean leadership met on Wednesday for a “rare summit…at which they discussed military matters, the war in Ukraine and possible Russian help for the secretive state's satellite program,” reported to Reuters. North Korean President Kim took the train to Moscow and, upon arrival, toured a Russian space rocket launch site, discussed with President Putin the possibility of sending a North Korean cosmonaut into space, engaged in several hours of talks with Putin and ministers of both countries, and then enjoyed an “an opulent lunch of Russian "pelmeni" dumplings stuffed with Kamchatka crab and then sturgeon with mushrooms and potatoes”. The report continued, “Kim raised a toast with a glass of Russian wine to Putin's health, to the victory of "great Russia" and to Korean-Russian friendship, predicting victory for Moscow in its "sacred fight" with the West in the Ukraine war.”
Of great concern to members of the US-led bloc were the commitments that came out of the summit from Putin and Kim to broaden military cooperation. “For weeks, the United States has been warning North Korea against providing weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine. But experts say there is little Washington can do to halt cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang…”, noted Al Jazeera. An article on the summit from Russian state media discussed China’s interests in the emerging Russia-North Korea alliance. Quoting Liu Jun, the deputy chairman of China's Association of International Relations, the report from TASS noted:
From China's perspective, cooperation between Russia and the DPRK is equitable and mutually beneficial to both two sovereign states, two neighboring countries and two countries with historical roots and groundwork for cooperation. China does not believe that Kim Jong Un's visit to Russia will have any harmful impact on the regional security situation. On the other hand, tighter military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK could upset the existing balance of power in Northeast Asia, which would be a certain deterrent to the strengthening military alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. But it will inevitably evoke a response from the United States, Japan and South Korea, which will complicate the regional security situation," Liu said, adding that China in this situation was not interested in escalating tensions in the region.
Turning to the G20 summit held last weekend in New Delhi, non-aligned India delicately balanced its international leadership role and neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict with strong disagreements among and pressure from the US, China, and Russia. All three nations are G20 members, but only President Biden attended the meeting, while Putin and Xi sent representatives in their stead, perhaps indicating the waning influence of the G20 as an international diplomatic forum as military-economic blocs harden. The Guardian noted that the statement on the Ukraine war that emerged from the summit was “watered down” and a “sign of India’s growing influence”:
It took exhausted Indian diplomats 200 hours of non-stop negotiations, 300 bilateral meetings and 15 drafts, but in the end the G20 countries reached a consensus declaration on the war in Ukraine – one that largely retreated into generalised principles rather than the specific condemnation of Russia that the same group of leaders agreed when they met in Bali a year ago.
Moreover, no invitation was extended to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to address the gathering, meaning the only direct combatant around the table was Russia, represented by its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov…The outcome obviously reflects India’s rigid determination not to take sides in the war.
(Image: “Indian prime minister Narendra Modi arrives at the G20 summit in New Delhi on Saturday © AP”, from the Financial Times, 09/09/2023, here).
There was also an announcement at the G20 summit of a new partnership between the US, India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU to develop a India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. The US White House described it as follows in a statement on Saturday: “Through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, we aim to usher in a new era of connectivity with a railway, linked through ports connecting Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. The United States and our partners intend to link both continents to commercial hubs and facilitate the development and export of clean energy; lay undersea cables and link energy grids and telecommunication lines to expand reliable access to electricity; enable innovation of advanced clean energy technology; and connect communities to secure and stable Internet.”
Writing for the Indian Express, C. Raja Mohan argued that the new corridor project helps India counterbalance the influence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Another report suggested that, alongside the obvious economic benefits to participants, the corridor project will also help the US counterbalance Chinese BRI expansion, and that US President Biden further hopes it will set the stage for normalized relations between Israel and the Gulf states.
But not everyone was happy, especially NATO-member Turkey, which was bypassed entirely by the plan. Turkish President Erdogan spoke out strongly against the India-Middle East-Europe corridor this week, noting that, “there can be no corridor without Turkey”. He also “[highlighted the fact that the most convenient trade route from east to west passes through Turkey”, according to the Hindustan News Hub. While Turkey opposes this particular project, it has strongly backed a different infrastructure initiative, the Development Road Project, which will ultimately connect the Gulf states to Turkey via Iraq.
As last week’s news about OPEC’s decision to make major oil production cuts demonstrates, non-aligned countries are staking out a middling path, exploiting opportunities and developing new partnerships with nations from both of the other competing blocs (Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with Russia, are OPEC members). As another example, at the annual Eastern Economic Forum meeting held this week in Vladivostok, Russia—and many thanks to my friend and colleague Rob Prince for alerting me to this (his blog is excellent, here)—India and Russia agreed to keep working together to develop new “maritime opportunities, including the possibility of using new transport corridors like the Northern Sea Route and the Eastern Maritime Corridor between Vladivostok and Chennai”. Parelleling India’s new partnership with the US, Europe and several Gulf states to develop trade infrastructure, “India is [also] keen to collaborate [with Russia] on a partnership regarding the development of the Northern Sea Route that holds the potential for enhanced connectivity and trade.”
Additionally, after leaders from the UAE attended the G20 summit and partnering with the West and India on trade infrastructure over weekend, other officials travelled to Hong Kong on Wednesday for the annual Belt and Road summit. Emerati Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri told the South China Morning Post that “one of the focuses for his visit was to meet small tech firms at the two city start-up accelerators to broaden the UAE’s oil-based economy.” According to the report, “One of the tech firms Al Marri is expected to speak to on Thursday is facial recognition tech provider SenseTime, which has been sanctioned by the United States for its alleged role in the surveillance of Uygurs in China.”
In related news, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said this week that a final decision had yet to be made following reports earlier in the week that Italy had finally decided to “quit the BRI” and instead sought to “revitalize a strategic partnership agreement” with China. “Italy is the only G7 nation to sign up to the BRI, a global trade and infrastructure plan modelled on the old Silk Road that linked imperial China and the West. Italy has the G7 presidency next year and recasting its relationship with Beijing would placate its Western allies, who are fearful of Chinese influence, while reducing the risk of a backlash from Beijing,” noted Reuters.
The German state-owned outlet Deutche Welle reported that French President Emmanuel Macron, who earlier this year briefly dabbled in the idea of European “strategic autonomy” from the US, visited Bangladesh this week “to counterbalance a ‘new imperialism’ in a region where several superpowers are jostling for influence”, referring to China’s growing influence in the region and US-China competition in Asia and the Pacific. It has been more than 30 years since a French president made the trip to Bangladesh, the world’s 8th most populous nation.
And, finally, Brazil took over the G20 presidency from India at the end of the summit. According to India’s The Week, “Brazil's president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva threaded a diplomatic needle on whether Russia’s Vladimir Putin could face arrest if he were to attend the G20 summit he'll organize Brazil next year. This is a sensitive issue because there is an International Criminal Court warrant against Putin for war crimes in Ukraine… Lula singled out the US, Russia, China, and India for not being members of the Hague-based ICC and questioned why Brazil, the world's 5th largest country, 7th by population, and with the 9th largest economy, had to be a part of it.”
Things I’m keeping an eye on:
Floods in Libya: Heavy rains brought by Storm Daniel caused two dams to burst over the weekend in Derna, Libya, resulting in catastrophic flooding of the port city. The Red Cross called the situation “disastrous beyond comprehension”. More than 5,000 people have died and more than 30,000 have been displaced.
UAW strike: United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain announced yesterday evening that 3 local chapters of the autoworkers union were selected to go on strike against the Big 3 American auto manufacturers, Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis. Some estimates are that a full UAW strike, should that happen, will cost 0.2% of US GDP each week the strike goes on. Workers and their employers have been unable to reach an agreement on wages and the existing contracts expired yesterday at midnight.
USG in crisis: El País reported this week that Kevin McCarthy, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, directed a House committee to open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden: “McCarthy said the House Oversight Committee’s investigation so far has found a “culture of corruption” around the Biden family as Republicans probe the business dealings of the president’s son, Hunter Biden, from before the Democratic president took office.” The article goes onto discuss the prospect of a government shutdown at the end of the month, as Congressional leadership wrangles over a series of funding bills that must be passed in order to avoid “disruption in government services”.
German deindustrialization:: FT reported this week that German industrial production was down 2.1% in July over the prior year, with output down over 12% since 2018. Further, “Germany’s most energy-intensive sectors have suffered an even bigger decline of 20 per cent”. The authors continued, “German industry has gone from being the powerhouse of Europe’s economy to one of the region’s worst performers after a series of shocks, including the pandemic’s disruption of global supply chains and the power crisis” caused by the war in Ukraine. The data in the graph below are staggering:
Related to the military-economic blocs discussed above, the FT article went on to note how “uncertainty” surrounding Germany’s economic relations with China “have raised concerns about how well the export-dependent sector can hope to do over the coming years”. China is Germany’s 2nd largest export market, behind the US, and exports to China fell 8.1% during the 1st seven months of 2023 relative to the same period last year, partly owing to the recent economic slowdown in China. An article from Reuters discusses other contributing factors, including that China is “increasingly able to produce [at home] goods it previously bought from Germany”. Complicating matters further, Germany remains heavily reliant on Chinese imports: “Germany's import dependence on China remains high as the energy transition is currently impossible without Chinese raw materials or solar panels”.